Americas

US markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, ahead of a busy week for earnings and economic data. The fourth-quarter earnings season moves into full swing, with investor attention turning to updates from a number of major companies, including 3M, Netflix, J&J, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Visa, Abbott Laboratories, GE Aerospace, P&G, Intel, Intuitive Surgical, and NextEra Energy. On the macroeconomic front, the US data calendar remains packed as government agencies continue to normalise publication schedules following the last government shutdown. Key releases include October and November personal income and outlays, the PCE price index, and another estimate of third-quarter GDP. Forecasts point to a 0.5% increase in consumer spending in November and a 0.4% rise in personal income, while both headline and core PCE inflation are expected to rise by 0.2%. GDP data are anticipated to confirm that the US economy expanded at an annualised pace of 4.3% in Q3. Additional data in focus include flash S&P Global PMI surveys, December pending home sales, the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, construction spending, and weekly updates on private-sector employment and initial jobless claims. Elsewhere in the Americas, Canada will release consumer inflation data, with the headline rate expected to remain at 2.2%. Retail sales and producer price data will also be in focus in Canada, alongside mid-month inflation readings from Mexico and Brazil.

Eccles Building, Washington DC, US

Europe

In Europe, attention will center on a heavy UK data calendar, with key updates on the labor market, retail sales, inflation, and public sector finances. UK headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% in December, with core inflation also seen at 3.3%. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 5.0% in the three months to November, easing from its highest level since early 2021, while retail sales are expected to fall for a third consecutive month. Flash PMI surveys for January will also be closely watched, offering a timely snapshot of business activity across the region. In the Euro Area and Germany, services activity is expected to show stronger expansion, while manufacturing is likely to remain in contraction, albeit at a slower pace. In the UK, both services and manufacturing are forecast to grow slightly faster than in December. In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to rise to 49 in January, its highest level in six months. Other notable releases include final Euro Area inflation figures, Eurozone consumer confidence, German producer prices, UK CBI surveys on order books and business optimism, GfK consumer sentiment, France’s business confidence, and Spain’s trade balance. On the policy front, the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its latest meeting. Meanwhile, central banks in Norway and Turkey will decide on monetary policy.

Bank of England, London, UK

Asia Pacific

Next week, China faces a busy data calendar, with market attention centered on Q4 2025 GDP growth, which is expected to slow to 4.4%. This would mark the weakest pace in nearly three years, weighed down by weak domestic consumption and ongoing structural challenges in the real estate sector. Full-year 2025 GDP growth is projected at around 4.9%, broadly in line with the government’s official target. Other key data releases include December industrial production, which is expected to rise 5% yoy, supported by year-end production targets and seasonal catch-up effects. Retail sales are seen increasing just 1.2%, the slowest pace since December 2022. Fixed-asset investment is expected to remain under pressure from the property sector, with growth projected to fall a further 3%. Additional releases include industrial capacity utilisation, unemployment rate, and FDI. The People’s Bank of China will also set its monthly lending rates. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan, which is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged following last month’s hike. Other notable releases include November machinery orders, forecast to have fallen 5.1% mom. Exports are expected to have risen 6.1% yoy, matching the previous month’s pace, while import growth is seen slowing, lifting the trade surplus to JPY 357 billion. Core inflation is likely to have eased sharply to 2.4% from 3.0%, while flash manufacturing PMI data already indicated a stalled factory sector. Elsewhere in the region, PMIs for India and Australia are due, while Australia will also release December labour market data, with the unemployment rate expected to edge up to 4.4% from 4.3%. South Korea is set to report Q4 GDP while Taiwan will release export orders. Inflation data are due from New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, alongside trade figures from Malaysia and Thailand. Finally, central banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions.

Shanghai, China