Thursday July 02 2015
US Economy Adds 223K Jobs In June
US Bureau of Labor Statistics | anna@tradingeconomics.com

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, down from a revised 262,000 in May and below market expectations. The unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent a month earlier.

Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing. 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +221,000 to +187,000, and the change for May was revised from +280,000 to +254,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 60,000 lower than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 221,000 per month.

Employment in professional and business services increased by 64,000 in June, about in line with the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the prior 12 months. In June,  employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+20,000), in architectural  and engineering services (+4,000), and in computer systems design and related services (+4,000).

Health care added 40,000 jobs in June. Job gains were distributed among the three component industries--ambulatory care services (+23,000), hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000). Employment in health care had grown by an average of 34,000 per month over the prior 12 months.

Employment in retail trade increased by 33,000 in June and has risen by 300,000 over the year. In June, general merchandise stores added 10,000 jobs.

In June, employment in financial activities increased by 20,000, with most of the increase in insurance carriers and related activities (+9,000) and in securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+7,000). Commercial banking employment declined by 6,000. Employment in financial activities has grown by 159,000 over the year, with insurance accounting for about half of the gain.

Transportation and warehousing added 17,000 jobs in June. Employment in truck transportation continued to trend up over the month (+7,000) and has increased by 19,000 over the past 3 months.

Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in June (+30,000) and has increased by 355,000 over the year.

Employment in mining continued to trend down in June (-4,000). Since a recent high in December 2014, employment in mining has declined by 71,000, with losses concentrated in support activities for mining.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information, and government, showed little or no change over the month.





Thursday July 02 2015
Unemployment Rate Declines to 5.3% in June
contact@tradingeconomics.com

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 5.3 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 375,000 to 8.3 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.8 percent), adult women (4.8 percent), and blacks (9.5 percent) edged down in June, while the rates for teenagers (18.1 percent), whites (4.6 percent), Asians (3.8 percent), and Hispanics (6.6 percent) showed little change.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 381,000 to 2.1 million in June. These individuals accounted for 25.8 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 955,000.

The civilian labor force declined by 432,000 in June, following an increase of similar magnitude in May. The labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 62.6 percent in June. The employment-population ratio, at 59.3 percent, was essentially unchanged in June and has shown little movement thus far this year. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 6.5 million, changed little in June. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. 

In June, 1.9 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 653,000 discouraged workers in June,  essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally  attached to the labor force in June had not searched for work for reasons such as  school attendance or family responsibilities.




Thursday July 02 2015
Jobless Claims at 5-Week High
DOL | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 10,000 to 281,000 in the week ended June 27th from 271,000 in the previous week.

The 4-week moving average was 274,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 273,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 2,264,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 2,247,000 to 2,249,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,252,500, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 2,237,000 to 2,237,500. 




Wednesday July 01 2015
US Manufacturing Growth at 5-Month High
ISM |Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Institute for Supply Management index of national factory activity was 53.5 in June, up from 52.8 in May and better than market expectations. It is the highest figure since January as new orders and job creation increased.

The New Orders Index registered 56 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the reading of 55.8 percent in May. 

The Production Index registered 54 percent, 0.5 percentage point below the May reading of 54.5 percent. 

The Employment Index registered 55.5 percent, 3.8 percentage points above the May reading of 51.7 percent, reflecting growing employment levels from May at a faster rate. Inventories of raw materials registered 53 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the May reading of 51.5 percent. 

The Prices Index registered 49.5 percent, the same reading as in May, indicating lower raw materials prices for the eighth consecutive month. 

Comments from the panel indicate mostly stable to improving business conditions, with the notable exception relating to the oil and gas markets. Also noted is the negative effect on egg prices and availability due to the avian flu outbreak.




Wednesday July 01 2015
US Factory Activity Lowest Since October 2013
Markit Economics | anna@tradingeconomics.com

The final Markit US Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.6 in June, slightly better than preliminary reading of 53.4 but still below 54 registered in May.

The employment subindex rose to 55.5 in June, the highest level since September 2014, from 54.6 in May. Despite weaker output growth and only a slight acceleration in total new business gains, the latest survey highlighted the fastest increase in payroll numbers since September 2014. Manufacturer noted that ongoing company expansion plans and the launch of new products had acted as a driver of staff recruitment at their plants. Meanwhile, backlogs of work continued to accumulate in June. In some instances, survey respondents noted that difficulties in recruiting suitably skilled staff had contributed to rising volumes of work outstanding.

The output subinded slowed to 53.9, the lowest level since January 2014, from 55.2 in May. Reports from survey respondents suggested that subdued export sales and weaker investment spending patterns in the energy sector had weighed on output growth. Overall volumes of new work increased at a slightly faster pace than the 16-month low seen in May. Manufacturers commented on solid demand from domestic clients and gradually improving economic conditions. Meanwhile, new export orders dropped for the third successive month, which is the longest continuous period since the second half of 2012. Lower demand from abroad was linked to the strong dollar, subdued sales to clients in the euro area and intense competition for new work.




Friday June 26 2015
US Consumer Sentiment at 5-Month High
University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 96.1 in June, higher than a preliminary reading of 94.6 and a final 90.7 in May. It is the highest figure since January, beating market expectations.

The barometer of current economic conditions increased to 108.9 from a preliminary 106.8. In May, the figure was 100.8.

The gauge of consumer expectations rose to 87.8 from a preliminary 86.8 and a final 84.2 in the previous month.

Americans expect the inflation rate in the next year will be 2.7 percent, unchanged from the preliminary reading but down from 2.8 percent in May. Over the next 5 to 10 years, they expect consumer prices to rise 2.6 percent, compared with a preliminary reading of 2.7 percent and a final figure of 2.8 percent in May.




Thursday June 25 2015
Personal Spending Rises The Most in Nearly 6 Years
BEA | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Personal consumption in the US jumped 0.9 percent in May over the previous month following a gain of only 0.1 percent in April. It is the biggest increase since August of 2009.

In May, personal income increased $79.0 billion, or 0.5 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $65.5 billion, or 0.5 percent. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.9 billion, or 0.9 percent.

In April, personal income increased $69.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $57.0 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $8.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in May, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in April.  Real PCE increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent.

Wages and salaries increased $37.1 billion in May, compared with an increase of $21.6 billion in April. Private wages and salaries increased $34.8 billion, compared with an increase of $19.4 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $2.4 billion, compared with an increase of $2.1 billion. Supplements to wages and salaries increased $5.7 billion in May, compared with an increase of $4.5 billion in April.




Thursday June 25 2015
Jobless Claims Edge Up in The Latest Week
DOL | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 3,000 to 271,000 in the week ended June 20th from an upwardly revised 268,000 in the previous week.

The 4-week moving average was 273,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 276,750 to 277,000. 

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7 percent for the week ending June 13, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 2,247,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 3,000 from 2,222,000 to 2,225,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,237,000, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 2,231,000 to 2,231,750. 


Wednesday June 24 2015
US GDP Contracts Less Than Expected in Q1
US Bureau of Economic Analysis | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The United States economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, instead of a 0.7 percent drop reported in the second estimate. The exports decreased less than previously estimated, and personal expenditures and imports rose more.

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the fourth. Durable goods increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 6.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent. Services increased 2.7 percent, compared with an increase of 4.3 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.0 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.7 percent in the fourth. Investment in nonresidential structures decreased 18.8 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 2.6 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 4.9 percent, compared with an increase of 10.3 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 6.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent.

Real exports of goods and services decreased 5.9 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.5 percent in the fourth. Real imports of goods and services increased 7.1 percent, compared with an increase of 10.4 percent.

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment was unchanged in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 7.3 percent in the fourth. National defense decreased 1.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 12.2 percent. Nondefense increased 2.0 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.45 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $99.5 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $80.0 billion in the fourth quarter and $82.2 billion in the third.




Tuesday June 23 2015
New Home Sales at 7-Year High
U.S. Census Bureau | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

Sales of new single-family houses in the US increased 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000 units in May. It is the highest figure since February of 2008, boosted by sales in the Northeast and the West.

The April figure was revised up to 534,000 units from the previously reported 517,000 units.

In May, sales in the Northeast jumped 87.5 percent and those in the West rose 13.1 percent. In contrast, sales in the Midwest fell 5.7 percent and those in the South shrank 4.3 percent. 

The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2015 was $282,800; the average sales price was $337,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 206,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate (4.6 in April).

Year-on-year, new home sales were 19.5 percent above the May 2014 estimate of 457,000.