News

US Initial Unemployment Claims Unexpectedly Hold
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US was unchanged from the prior week at 212,000 for the period ending April 18th, below market expectations of 215,000. Additionally, continuing claims were loosely unchanged at 1,812,000 at the start of the month, below market expectations of 1,818,000, to show that the unemployed are finding jobs at a healthy pace when compared to historical standards. The results were in line with a batch of recent data pointing to a tight labor market, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts to tackle stubborn inflation. The four-week-moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, was also unchanged at 214,500. In the meantime, non-seasonally adjusted claims fell by 6,576 to 208,509, with notable declines in New Jersey (-4,551), Wisconsin (-1,798), and Pennsylvania (-1,647).
Published on 2024-04-18

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 11,000 to 211,000 in the week ending April 6th, the lowest in one month, and below market expectations of 215,000. The decline countered the increase brought by the upwardly revised, two-month high in the earlier week to add further evidence of a tight labor market in the US economy, in line with the strength in the latest jobs report, to add leeway for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer to combat inflation. The four-week-moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, eased by 250 to 214,250. In the meantime, non-seasonally adjusted rose by 17,037 to 214,386, as increases in New Jersey (4,190) and New York (2,612) offset a sharp decline in Iowa (-1,339).
Published on 2024-04-11

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 2-Month High
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US surged by 11,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised value to 221,000 on March 30th, the most in two months, and well above market expectations of 214,000. The result pointed to a departure from the extended period of low initial claim counts and contrasted against other strong labor reports released this week, suggesting that tightness in the US labor market may be absorbing a delayed impact of elevated interest rates. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, jumped by 2,750 to 214,250. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims rose by 2,455 to 196,376, with notable increases in California (2,528), Pennsylvania (1,898), and Iowa (1,494). In the meantime, continuing claims edged down by 19,000 from the six-week high from mid-March to total 1,791,000 on the period ending March 23rd.
Published on 2024-04-04

US Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Ease
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US eased by 2,000 to 210,000 on the week ending March 23rd, beating market expectations of 215,000 to extend the momentum of relatively low claim counts since the start of February. In the meantime, continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1,819,000 in the earlier week, offsetting the downward revision from earlier in March to reach its highest since mid-January. Still, the data continued to show that the US labor market remains tight at a historical standard, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s latest assessment and adding leeway for the central bank to delay the start of rate cuts. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, eased by 750 to 211,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims fell by 287 to 191,485, with a decline in Michigan (-1,315) offsetting a sharp increase in Texas (2,209).
Published on 2024-03-28

US Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Soften
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 2,000 to 210,000 on the week ending March 16th, 2024, below market expectations of 215,000. At the same time, continuing unemployment claims were relatively unchanged at 1,807,000 for the earlier week. The data continued to show that the US labor market remains tight, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s latest assessment and adding leeway for the central bank to delay the start of rate cuts. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 2,500 to 211,250.
Published on 2024-03-21

US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 1,000 to 209,000 in the week ended March 8, 2024, below market expectations of 218,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 217,000 to 210,000. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose by 17,000 to 1811,000 in the previous week, compared with market expectations of 1900K. The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.
Published on 2024-03-14

US Weekly Claims Above Expectations
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US was 217K in the week ended March 2, 2024, unchanged from the previous week's revised level and above market expectations of 215K. The previous week's level was revised up by 2K from 215K to 217K. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose by 8K to 1906K in the previous week, the highest since November, and above market expectations of 1889K. The 4-week moving average decreased by 750 to 212.25K.
Published on 2024-03-07

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US jumped by 13,000 to 215,000 on the week ending February 24th, rebounding sharply from the five-week low in the earlier period and firmly above market expectations of 210,000. Additionally, continuing jobless claims rose by 45,000 to 1,905,000 in the previous week, the highest since November, and well above market expectations of 1,874,000. Despite remaining at historically tight levels, the results favored the view that the US labor market is undergoing some softening following the prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell by 3,000 to 212,500. At the same time, the non-seasonally adjusted claim count eased by 5,349 to 193,988, as declines in Oklahoma (-1,986) and Oregon (-1,376) offset increases in Massachusetts (3,980) and Rhode Island (1,943).
Published on 2024-02-29

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Week Low
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US sank by 12,000 to 201,000 on the week ending February 17th, well below market expectations of 218,000, to mark the lowest claim count since the 16-month low of 189,000 recorded five weeks prior. Additionally, continuing claims fell by 27,000 to 1,862,000 in the earlier period, undershooting expectations of 1,885,000, suggesting that unemployed individuals are having an easier time in finding suitable jobs. The data added to the strong jobs report from January to underscore historical tightness in the US labor market, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher should inflation remain high. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, fell by 3,500 to 215,250. The non-seasonally-adjusted claim count fell by 26,053 to 197,932, with sharp declines noted in California (-8,584), Kentucky (-3,655), and Michigan (-1,907).
Published on 2024-02-22

US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fall
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 8,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised value to 212,000 on the period ending February 9th, firmly below market estimates of 220,000. It was the lowest reading in nearly one month, adding to the latest jobs report that indicated historical tightness in the US labor market, thus maintaining the leeway for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, jumped by 5,750 to 218,500 in the period. The non-seasonally adjusted initial claim count fell by 12,565 to 222,164, as decreases in Missouri (-3,594) and Pennsylvania (-1,517) offset increases in Kentucky (3,264) and California (2,578). On the other hand, continuing claims rose by 30,000 to 1,895,000 in the previous week, suggesting that the unemployed population is having a more difficult time finding suitable jobs.
Published on 2024-02-15

US Jobless Claims Ease
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by 9,000 to 218,000 from the prior week's upwardly revised value in the February 2nd report, slightly below estimates of 220,000 but remaining firmly above the average from the last two months. In the meantime, continuing claims eased by 23,000 to 1,871,000 in the last week of January. Despite remaining firmly above the average from the last two months, the figures continue to point to a slowing albeit strong labor market. In the meantime, the four-week moving average jumped by 3,750 to 212,250. Non-seasonal-adjusted claims fell by 31,192 to 232,727, with declines noted in Oregon (-4,988), Ohio (-4,339), and California (-3,806), while increases were observed in Missouri (1,755) and Texas (1,237).
Published on 2024-02-08

Initial Jobless Claims Rise for 2nd Week
The number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in the US rose for a second consecutive week to 224K in the week ended January 27th, the highest reading since mid-November, compared to an upwardly revised 215K in the previous week and forecast of 212K. The 4-week moving average which excludes week-to-week volatility also went up to 207.75K an increase of 5.250K from the previous week's average. Based on unadjusted data, claims rose the most in California (5.599K), NY (4.316K) and Oregon (4.036K) but the biggest declines were recorded for Illinois (-2.316K) and Missouri (-1.818K). Meanwhile, continuing claims which are seen as a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1898K in the week ended January 20th, the highest in nine weeks, from a downwardly revised 1828K in the previous week and above forecasts of 1840K. The claims report has been pointing to a soft slowdown in the labour market which remains tight anyway.
Published on 2024-02-01

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 25,000 to 214,000 on the week ending January 20th, rebounding significantly from the 16-month low touched in the prior week and overshooting market expectations of 200,000. In the meantime, continuing claims rose by 27,000 to 1,833,000, slightly ahead of market expectations of 1,828,000 to suggest that unemployed individuals are taking longer to find jobs. The data contrasted with a series of hot labor figures released for December and early January, challenging views that the labor market shall remain historically strong following the Fed's historical tightening campaign. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, fell by 1,500 to 202,250. In the meantime, the non-seasonally adjusted initial claim count fell by 42,375 to 248,955, resisting an even higher seasonal drop as Wisconsin (1,216), Washington (475), and Michigan (47), were the only states to record positive unemployment changes.
Published on 2024-01-25

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 16-Month Low
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 187,000 on the week ending January 18th, the least since September 2022, and well below market expectations of 207,000. Continuing claims fell by 26,000 to 1,806,000 in the earlier week, the least since October 2023 to signal that unemployed individuals are having a relatively easier time in finding new positions. The data extended other recently-released job gauges in underscoring the historical tightness of the US labor market, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to prolong its hawkish stance into the second quarter, if necessary, to lower inflation. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, fell by 4,750 to 203,250. In the meantime, the non-seasonally adjusted initial claim count plunged by 29,543 to 289,228, with a significant decline in New York (-17,176) following the mass layoffs in transportation and warehousing, construction, and information industries from the prior week.
Published on 2024-01-18

US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Over 2-Month Low
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised value to 202,000 on the period ending January 6th, well below market expectations of 210,000. In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 34,000 to 1,834,000 on the earlier week, also below market expectations of 1,871,000. The data matched other recently-released job gauges in underscoring the historical tightness of the US labor market, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to prolong its hawkish stance into 2024, if necessary, to lower inflation. The four-week moving average, which reduces week-to-week volatility, fell by 250 to 207,750. In the meantime, the non-seasonally adjusted initial claim count rose by 47,632 due to the seasonal 20,755 surge in the state of New York and the 9,990 jump in California.
Published on 2024-01-11

US Initial Claims Fall to Over 2-Month Low
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits sank by 18,000 to 202,000 in the last week of 2023, firmly below market expectations of 216,000 to mark the lowest claim count since October. In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 31,000 to 1,885,000 in the earlier period, signaling that individuals are having an easier time finding new employment. The data matched other recently-released gauges in underscoring the historical tightness of the US labor market, adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to prolong its hawkish stance into 2024, if necessary, to lower inflation. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, fell by 4,750 to 207,750. In the meantime, non-seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 6,820 to 268,020, with sharp declines noted in California (-7,572) and Texas (-6,080).
Published on 2024-01-04

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise More than Expected
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 12,000 to 218,000 on the week ending December 23rd, above market expectations of 210,000, to suggest some softening in the US labor market before the end of the year. In the meantime, continuing claims rose by 14,000 to a one-month high of 1,875,000, as expected by markets. The result was consistent with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to start its cutting cycle in the first quarter of 2024. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, edged down by 250 to 212,000. The non-seasonally adjusted initial claim count rose by 31,570 to 272,610, with significant increases in California (5,594), Missouri (4,556), and New Jersey (4,554).
Published on 2023-12-28

US Initial Claims Unexpectedly Hold Close to 2-Month Low
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits edged higher by 2,000 to 205,000 on the week ending December 16th, holding close to the two-month low of 203,000 hit in the previous week and well below market expectations of 215,000. The result underscored relative tightness in the US labor market and added leeway for the Federal Reserve to hold its terminal rate for longer should inflation remain stubborn. In the meantime, continuing claims fell by 1,000 in the first week of December to 1,865,000, firmly under market expectations of 1,888,000. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, fell by 1,500 to 212,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims fell by 9,225 to 239,865, with sharp declines in California (-3,330) and Georgia (-1,957).
Published on 2023-12-21

US Jobless Claims Fall to 2-Month Low
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits slumped by 19,000 to 202,000 on the week ending December 9th, well below market expectations of 220,000, to mark the lowest level of new claims in two months. The result marked a reversal from higher readings in the two prior weeks, underscoring relative tightness in the US labor market and adding leeway for the Federal Reserve to hold its terminal rate for longer should inflation remain stubborn. In the meantime, continuing claims rose by 11,000 to 1,876,000 in the last week of November, but undershot market expectations of 1,887,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims plummeted by 46,316 to 248,299, with considerable declines in New York (-6,581) and Pennsylvania (-4,362). The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, fell by 7,750 to 213,250.
Published on 2023-12-14

US Unemployment Claims Edge Higher
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits edged higher by 1,000 to 220,000 on the week ending December 2nd, slightly under market expectations of 222,000, but marking the second-highest reading since September. The result extended the current trend that the US labor market is showing signs of cooling from tighter levels displayed earlier in the year, albeit remaining strong from a historical standpoint. The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, rose by 500 to 220,750. The non-seasonally adjusted claim count jumped by 93,761 to 293,511, amid sharp increases in California (+14,057), New York (+9,343), and Texas (+7,698). On the other hand, continuing claims sank by 64,000 to 1,861,000 in the earlier week, pointing to an improvement in conditions for the unemployed to find available positions.
Published on 2023-12-07